Party (Candidates) | Votes | % Votes | Swing | Seats Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party (47) | 398,182 | 37.97 | -6.81 | 25 |
| Labor Party (47) | 343,896 | 32.79 | -3.01 | 19 |
| Nick Xenophon's SA Best (36) | 148,360 | 14.15 | +14.15 | .. |
| Greens (47) | 69,826 | 6.66 | -2.05 | .. |
| Independents (15) | 36,780 | 3.51 | -0.22 | 3 |
| Australian Conservatives (33) | 31,826 | 3.03 | -3.21 | .. |
| Dignity Party (30) | 15,565 | 1.48 | +0.90 | .. |
| Animal Justice Party (4) | 3,262 | 0.31 | +0.31 | .. |
| Danig Party of Australia (4) | 732 | 0.07 | +0.07 | .. |
| Stop Population Growth Now (1) | 284 | 0.03 | +0.03 | .. |
| Others (..) | 0 | .. | -0.15 | .. |
| Formal (264) | 1,048,713 | 95.90 | 47 | |
| Informal | 44,871 | 4.10 | +1.01 | |
| Total Votes / Turnout | 1,093,584 | 91.00 | -0.94 | |
| Enrolled Voters | 1,201,775 | |||
| Two-Party Preferred Vote | ||||
| Liberal Party | 544,654 | 51.9 | -1.1 | |
| Labor Party | 504,059 | 48.1 | +1.1 | |
In the above table, support for the Australian Conservatives has been compared with support for Family First in 2014. Family First polled 2.6% in 2002, 5.9% in 2006, 5.4% in 2010 and 6.3% in 2014.
The work of the Boundaries Commission might have come to nothing had pre-election levels of support for Nick Xenophon's SA Best continued through to polling day. SA Best finished well short of its pre-election polling figures, and the election reverted to the traditional two-party contest on which the new electoral boundaries had been based.
SA Best recorded 14.15% of the first preference vote, not enough to win seats, but highly creditable in the annals of Australian third party politics. SA Best finished second after preferences in 12 of the 47 electorates, seven in seats won by the Liberal Party, five in seats won by Labor. Nick Xenophon also finished second on first preferences in Hartley but was passed by Labor during the distribution of preferences.
Only in the Liberal seats of Heysen and Finniss did SA Best reduce the winning candidate's margin to under 5%.
The presence of SA Best and the sweeping nature of the redistribution created some peculiarities in the final results. The Liberal Party won the election with 51.9% of the state-wide two-party preferred vote, meaning there was an overall swing of 1.1% swing to Labor. This was short of the 3% required for Labor to overcome the redistribution. Elections are won by votes not swings, but it is rare for a government to come to office with a swing against it.
Support for SA Best resulted in a fall in the first preference vote share for both major parties. The Labor Party's first preference vote share was down 3.0 percentage points to 32.8%, its second lowest since the Second World War, and the Liberal Party's vote share was down 6.8 percentage points to 38.0%, also the second lowest figure since the Second World War (excluding the 1975 Liberal Movement split).
Despite post-election analysis declaring the South Australian result a defeat for minor parties and a sign of major party resurgence, the results paint a different picture. SA Best may have failed to meet pre-election expectations, but the overall vote for minor parties reached record levels in both houses, as shown in the graph below.
Taking account of nominations, SA Best polled 18.4% in the 36 seats it contested, the Australian Conservatives 4.3% in the 33 seats it contested, and Dignity 2.3% in the 30 seats it contested.
SA Best polled above 20% in nine electorates, its highest vote share 25.9% in Labor-held Giles, 25.8% in Liberal-held Finniss, 25.1% in Labor-held Taylor, 24.9% in Liberal-held Hartley (contested by Nick Xenophon), 24.9% in Liberal-held Chaffey, 24.3% in Liberal-held Heysen.
The Australian Conservatives polled above 6% in only five electorates, recording 9.1% in Narungga, 8.7% in Mackillop, 6.8% in Light (won by Labor), 6.6% in Chaffey and 6.5% in Flinders.
New Electoral Pendulum
The table below sets out the post-election pendulum for South Australia. Liberal seats are shown on the left, Labor and Independent seats on the right.
All Labor and Liberal seats are shown with their two-party preferred margins. Figures in brackets next to electorate names indicate alternative two-candidate preferred margins versus a non-major party. The three seats won by Independents appear twice, at bottom right with margins versus the second placed major party, and also highlighted with the alternative two-party preferred margins in the Liberal and Labor columns.
| Liberal Seats (25) | Labor Seats (19) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin |
| King | 0.7 | Mawson | 0.3 |
| Adelaide | 1.0 | Wright | 3.5 |
| Newland | 2.0 | Lee | 3.8 |
| Elder | 4.4 | Torrens | 4.6 |
| Dunstan | 6.1 | Hurtle Vale | 5.3 |
| Waite | 7.8 | Badcoe | 5.5 |
| Hartley | 7.8 | Enfield | 7.9 |
| Colton | 7.9 | Light | 9.9 |
| Heysen (1.8 v SAB) | 8.5 | Taylor (5.7 v SAB) | 10.8 |
| Black | 8.7 | Florey (IND held) | 11.0 |
| Davenport | 8.8 | West Torrens | 13.2 |
| Gibson | 9.3 | Reynell | 14.5 |
| Morphett | 10.5 | Kaurna | 14.9 |
| Morialta | 10.7 | Giles (7.4 v SAB) | 15.2 |
| Frome (IND held) | 11.1 | Cheltenham | 15.9 |
| Unley | 11.3 | Playford | 16.3 |
| Finniss (4.6 v SAB) | 14.2 | Port Adelaide (11.1 v SAB) | 16.8 |
| Schubert | 14.3 | Elizabeth (13.9 v SAB) | 17.7 |
| Kavel (9.7 v SAB) | 14.8 | Ramsay (15.5 v SAB) | 18.9 |
| Chaffey (8.6 v SAB) | 17.3 | Croydon | 24.4 |
| Narungga (9.5 v SAB) | 17.4 | ||
| Bragg | 17.4 | Independents (3) | |
| Mount Gambier (IND Held) | 18.5 | Florey (v ALP) | 6.1 |
| Hammond (12.1 v SAB) | 19.5 | Mount Gambier (v LIB) | 7.1 |
| Stuart | 23.1 | Frome (v LIB) | 8.2 |
| MacKillop (17.6 v SAB) | 25.0 | ||
| Flinders | 26.3 | ||
The Pattern of Swing
In the analysis of swing set out below, I am using the estimates of margins I calculated for the ABC. As I explained in this blog post, my calculations used a different method of allocating declaration votes to new electorates than that used by the Boundaries Commission. Analysing the post-election booth swings in seats like Adelaide, King and Mawson has confirmed that my estimates were a more accurate re-allocation of the declaration vote.
The Labor Party was re-elected at the 2010 election by minimising the swing in marginal seats. The Liberal Party had needed a uniform swing of 6.9% to gain the seven seats needed for victory, and achieved an 8.4% swing, but gained only three seats. Labor bled votes in safe seats, with double digit swings in 16 ultra-safe Labor seats, but minimised the swing in marginal seats.
The 2012 redistribution put the 2010 result down to campaign issues rather than the boundaries and did not engage in a wholesale re-draw. When the Liberal Party polled an even higher 53.0% of the two-party vote in 2014 without winning, the ground was set for the radical re-drawing of boundaries produced by the 2016 redistribution.
On the new boundaries in 2018, a very different pattern of swing emerged. Results suggest the Labor Party devoted more resources to defending its notional post-redistribution seats. Across the state there was a 1.1% swing to Labor, but the swing was 0.6% in the Liberal Party's favour in 26 pre-election Liberal seats (including Morphett and Mount Gambier but not Frome), and 3.0% towards Labor in the 20 notional Labor seats (including Florey).
Liberal seats with margins under 6% swung 2.2 percentage points to the Liberal party, marginal Labor seats 2.8 percentage points in the opposite direction towards Labor, and safe (6-12%) Labor seats 4.2 percentage points to Labor. Where before the election both the Labor and Liberal Parties held nine seats on margins under 6%, post-election there are only four Liberal seats and six Labor seats in this range, the number of two-party marginal seats down from 18 to 10.
The 2018 election result is a bit like a First World War battlefield. The Boundaries Commission drew the electoral dividing line, and the combatants metaphorically dug trenches on either side by making all their own seats safer.
Including Florey as an underlying Labor seat, Labor would need to gain a further four seats for majority government requiring a uniform swing of 4.4 percentage points. Assuming uniform swing, this implies Labor would need 52.5% of the two-party preferred vote to win the 2022 election.
Shortly before the 2018 election, the Weatherill government repealed the 'fairness' provision from the state's constitution. Unless the fairness provision is re-applied, the 2020 Boundaries Commission will not be required to adjust the boundaries in Labor's favour to re-balance the swing.
However, as with many elections since the fairness provision was introduced, the swing in 2018 was not uniform. As with the 2010 and 2014 results, the pattern of swing in 2018 seems to be heavily correlated with the concentration of effort by the major parties.
Overall there were 28 seats with two-party preferred swings towards Labor, and 19 with swings to the Liberal Party. Of 19 notional Labor seats, 17 swung towards Labor. Of 25 notional Liberal seats, 16 swung to the Liberal party and nine to Labor. Of the three Independent seats, Frome swung to the Liberal Party, Florey and Mount Gambier to Labor.
The largest swing to Labor was 10.0 percentage points in the Whyalla and outback based seat of Giles. Sitting member Eddie Hughes defeated a strong challenge from SA Best. Hughes was first elected in 2014, and his result may reflect the so-called 'sophomore surge' that can work in favour of members facing re-election for the first time.
The four seats with the largest swings to the Liberal Party were Colton (4.0 percentage points), Hartley (5.2), Gibson (5.6) and Black (6.4). Colton had become a notional Liberal seat in the redistribution and sitting Labor MP Paul Caica retired. Hartley, Gibson and Black covered seats gained by the Liberal Party in 2014 and all three sitting members were facing their first re-election. Clearly retiring members, 'sophomore surge' and differential campaigning by Labor played a part in these swings.
The most remarkable individual seat result was the re-election of Labor's Leon Bignell in Mawson. The redistribution had turned his 2014 Labor margin of 5.6% into a notional Liberal margin of 4.2% He achieved a 4.5% swing in his favour to be narrowly re-elected. He achieved a 4.7% swing in polling places previously in the Liberal seat of Finniss, 3.9% in polling places previously in the Labor-held seat of Kaurna, and 5.9% in the rural parts remaining from his former seat of Mawson.
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