BUHARI'S RIVERS OF RIGGING FOR OIL Part 3bvi (B)
BETWEEN "SHE STOOPS TO CONQUER AND "DODAN BARRACKS"

TINUBU'S TWO PRESIDENTIAL OPTIONS.
(THE "DODAN BARRACKS" OPTION)
(By Amaso Jack)
"After over a year of a forensic audit, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has concluded investigation of Oando Plc and barred the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr Wale Tinubu, from being a director of a public company for five years"
"DODAN BARRACKS" is the political principle, best expressed by Lt-colonel Tony Nyiam as "in office but not in power". Gowon and Shagari and Sonekan, were all victims of Dodan Barracks where both with the exception of Sonekan, ruled Nigeria from.
GATHERING OF OMINOUS CLOUDS....A REPLAY OF ABIOLA'S SCRIPT?
Security Exchange Commission, SEC had asked Wale Tinubu, Group Chief Executive Officer, of OANDO Plc (the nephew of Bola Ahmed Tinubu) and Omamofe Boyo his deputy to step down
Shehu Sani added, an interesting twist to the development, when he said: "There is a school of thought in the North among the ruling political elites that are close to President, that even without the votes of the Southwest, that the North can still produce the president in 2023. And as such, the attack on Tinubu is a trigger to begin realization of that."
The first ominous sign of the fate that lay ahead of Chief M.K.O Abiola's path to the presidency was the "mad dog" incident, between Abiola's son and the Airforce. Air Vice Marshall Nura Imam, was the Air Officer Commanding the Logistics air command of the Airforce, under whose sphere of command influence the incident happened.
“Mr. Ayodeji Abiola, Chief Abiola’s second son, was less lucky to have been involved in a minor traffic accident with a vehicle driven by Air Force Corporal M. Danjuma near the airport”
The nation captured it twice, this way:
• First under the title: "The gore and the glory", published two years ago, it provided the following details:
"MKO was involved in the Air Force “mad dogs” saga — a personal humiliation by Air Force other ranks who, AVM Nura Imam then dismissed as “mad dogs”
• Then under the title: "These are mad dogs" published five years ago.
"Mad Dogs’ in the Nigerian Air force that assaulted late Bashorun MKO Abiola under the military dictatorship of General Ibrahim Babangida."
Ayodeji Abiola, the son of Chief M.K.O. Abiola was involved, like Abiola, Tinubu's nephew, Wale Tinubu has been given a Five year ban.
The first question is, is it a harmless coincidence of justice or a deep and covert Strategic power play in which Wale Tinubu has been separated from corporate boardrooms and the massive funds that go with it or is a replay of the Ayodeji Abiola's ominous sign of what lies ahead?
Observation: To drive the point home, as was the case with Abiola, a blood relation got embarrassed. For Abiola it was his son, for Tinubu his nephew?
The Financial dimension
The author, Akinjide Osuntokun, on the 98th page of his 1984 Mosuro; Ibadan published biography of Chief Samuel Ladoke Akintola, authenticated by Professor E. A. Ayandele, a Professor Emeritus of History, in the University of Ibadan captured the role of money in our Politics from a historical perspective this way:
"Rewane was also on the board of NIPC, and was chairman of the Nigersol Construction Company, Ltd, as well as of the Western Nigerian Water Resources Company, Ltd. These two companies were given an unsecured loan of three million pounds Sterling by the Western Nigerian Marketing Board, though there is evidence that the chairman of the two companies passed over two million pounds of this to the Action Group. Rewane's qualifications for this job were simply that he at one time had been Political Secretary to Chief Awolowo and secondly that Awolowo had a special place in his heart for the Itshekiri, of which Rewane was an important leader".
The same Rewane who was the financier of the progressives was killed when the vital interest of the South West and North clashed over June 12.
The second question is, considering the role of money in our politics (based on the example of Rewane) and his financial backing of the Action Group in the 60s and considering the strategic ban placed on Wale Tinubu (that extends from now till one year after the 2023 elections) what is the strategic depth of Wale Tinubu's financial involvement in Bola Ahmed Tinubu's Politics?
The third question is, is the action against Wale Tinubu aimed at crippling the financial base of Bola Tinubu, when viewed from the questionable circumstances of Rewane's death, based on his financial status with respect to the progressives?
"Alfred Rewane, the late industrialist and tireless financier of progressive causes since the fifties. He was a great and trusted ally of Chief Obafemi Awolowo and reputed to be one of the financial wizards behind the Action Group’s remarkable solvency during the First Republic....His executors were said to have spoken perfect and flawless Itsekiri and had managed to hoodwink and browbeat the security at the gate by donning the uniform of one of his companies. They had been let in on the pretext that they had an urgent message for the old man. It was a message of death. He was shot at close range," https://www.google.com/…/the…/death-chief-alfred-rewane/amp/
DODAN BARRACKS TINUBU'S SLIMMEST CHANCE...... BUT WITHOUT A GUARANTEE
Dodan Barracks as was stated in part Part 3biii,
"was the place where Gowon was in office but not in power." In Strategic analytic Nigerian politics, Dodan Barracks is the symbol of a political system of Indirect rule Lt-Colonel Tony Nyiam aptly described as "in office but not in power"
It is a situation of Indirect rule in which the president is in office but not in power, the finest contemporary example is San Suu Kyi, the president of Myanmar, formally known as Burma
"Outraged by the exodus of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar into neighbouring Bangladesh due to an army crackdown, they have accused her of doing nothing to stop rape, murder and possible genocide by refusing to condemn the powerful military or acknowledge accounts of atrocities"
Myanmar is a classic example of "In office but not in Power", in which the military totally disregards the democratically and is in a state of insubordination to the elected democratic political authority, for the exclusive purpose of protection of what clearly is their vital interest which and perhaps their overt vested interest.
GOWON IN OFFICE BUT NOT IN POWER:
"Yakubu Gowon was in office but not in power, it was Gen. Murtala Muhammed and Gen. Hassan Katsina that were in charge when Gowon was there. " Lt-Colonel Tony Nyiam. https://www.sunnewsonline.com/buhari-is-undermining-nigeri…/
It is a situation in which what Nigeria's authoritative military historian, Max Siollun would call "Critical Support Network" was established by the core North to sustain their vital interest as the operating system of Nigeria, so in the event of another geopolitical group winning the presidency, they will be in office like Obasanjo (as a military leader), Jonathan, and Sonekan, but not in Power.
CRITICAL SUPPORT NETWORK is the Strategic explanation for Buhari's Nepotism.
Strategic Question: If the Lt-Colonels that removed Gowon and replace him with Murtala, could attempt "Dodan Barracks" on Murtala as erraratic as he was (as we shall read) who is Tinubu that they won't try it on especially as one of those Lt-Colonels then, is now President Muhammadu Buhari?
MURTALA CLOSE VICTIM OF HIS OWN INVENTION?
One page 182 of his book, Oil, Politics and Violence, Siollun wrote:
"The Colonels had already decided that three of their superior officers, Brigadiers Murtala Muhammed, Olusegun Obasanjo and Theophilus Danjuma, would form a troika, at the head of the new regime, with Murtala replacing Gowon as head of State....
The three Brigadiers were informed that decisions of the new SMC would only be taken with the concurrence of a majority of its members, and that any decision that was opposed by two thirds of the SMC could not be implemented. Murtala angrily objected and insisted that, as head of State, he should be given a free hand to governor unrestricted by his colleagues. The Colonels warned him that they could easily nominate someone else if he did not agree..... Murtala told the Colonels that once he assumed power, he would not allow himself to be a stooge of, or be dictated to by, the officers who had got him there. Murtala made it clear that he would be independent and would governor as he saw fit. The meeting at Dodan Barracks did not end till 4 a. m."
Question: Who were those officers, that took part in the overthrow of Gowon and most in the overthrow of Ironsi?
Siollun identifies them as this way on the 179th page of the book.
"In the early hours of July 29, 1975, the core officers in the coup such as Lt-Colonels Yar'Adua, Abdullahi Mohammed, Ibrahim Taiwo, Babangida, Buhari, Muktar Mohammed, Alfred Aduloju, Paul Tarfa and Sani Bello met."
STRATEGIC QUESTION FOR A TINUBU PRESIDENCY:
If those Colonels whose boss Murtala was could attempt "IN OFFICE BUT NOT IN POWER" on him under the guise of checks and balance, did it to Shagari (as we shall soon see) and stopped Abiola, WHO ARE THE PROGRESSIVES and specifically Tinubu that they will not try it on him?
OBSERVATION: Should Tinubu ever get the position of president, he most likely will face "in office but not in power"!
STRATEGIC OBSERVATION: All these officers listed by Siollun have a hand in the corridors of power, are against restructuring as defined by the progressives.
STRATEGIC OBSERVATION : Buhari and Babangida became heads of state.
STRATEGIC OBSERVATION: Sani Bello was Ironsi's Military ADC.
STRATEGIC QUESTION: What was Buhari's position with the vital interest of the North in view at the critical moment of the annualment of the June 12 elections, in terms of for or against?
SHAGARI IN OFFICE BUT NOT IN POWER:
Max Siollun in his book, "Soldiers of Fortune Nigerian Politics from Buhari to Babangida"
wrote on the 7th page of the 2013 Cassava (Abuja) published book, the following:
"Some senior military officers drafted a list of government ministers they wanted President Shagari to remove, and nominated their preferred replacements. They delegated their boss, Lt-General Wushishi, to submit the list to Shagari on their behalf"
STRATEGIC QUESTION: If these soldiers could have the effrontery to impose "IN OFFICE BUT NOT ON POWER" on Shagari who was one of them, WHO IS TINUBU THE PROGRESSIVE not to expect such?
SONEKAN IN OFFICE BUT NOT IN POWER:
Major General M. C. Alli in his 2001, Multhouse Press Limited book, he titled:
"The Federal Republic of Nigerian Army The Siege of a Nation", captured Ernest Shonekan's in office but not in Power" in three ways.
General Alli; an Igbirra from Kogi state, was Nigeria's 12th Chief of Army Staff (counting from Lt-Colonel Joe Akahan, the first Commander of the army with the designation Chief of Army Staff).
He was: "military governor of Plateau State Nigeria from August 1985 to 1986 during the military regime of General Ibrahim Babangida. Many years later, he was appointed interim administrator of the state during a 2004 crisis in the state following ethno-religious killings in Shendam, Yelwa Local Government." Maduabuchi Dukor http://www.africanbookscollective.com/…/mohammed-chris-alli…
• On the 220th of the same book, General Alli provided the greatest evidence of Sonekan in office but not in power, for the first time in the history of the country, the armed forces were without a symbol of loyalty either as a Supreme Commander, whom Ironsi and Gowon were or as Commander-in-Chief from Aburi to date, he wrote:
"In the ensuing but subtle scheming within the Army to supplant Chief Shonekan, he was lucky to get off alive. Good judgement prevailed when he was confronted. He gave up power without open resistance, not that he had capacity for any at that point in his administration. He was unable to command the loyalty of the Army: indeed, the position of Commander-in-Chief was left open at Shonekan's oath-taking ceremony. It is doubtful whether in his naivety he understood the implications of that deliberate omission.
At his swearing-in, and with the omission clear, I was barely able to retrain myself from screaming, 'who is our commander in chief?" After the ceremony, I was to draw the attention of General Oladipo Diya and Balarabe Haladu to the omission. The former, a close ally of General Abacha, the latter, neither here nor there. They too showed concern and disbelief that the Chief was crowned the nation's leader but was not in command of the Armed Forces of Nigeria."
That year, all the service chiefs stayed away from the passing out parade of the Nigerian Defence Academy, in Kaduna, for the simple reason that there was Commander in Chief or symbol of loyalty.
Babangida had in effect thrown the country into confusion, remaining the de facto Commander-in-Chief, who stopped aside as president, but remained in principle the commander-in-Chief. Shonekan was the worst example of in office but not in power.
• On the 67th page, he called it the: "will-o'-the-wisp regime of Chief Ernest Shonekan"
will-o'-the-wisp: means "a goal that cannot be reached" https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/will-o'-the-wisp…
Background of will-o'-the-wisp:
"The will-o'-the-wisp is a flame-like phosphorescence caused by gases from decaying plants in marshy areas. In olden days, it was personified as "Will with the wisp," a sprite who carried a fleeting "wisp" of light. Foolish travelers were said to try to follow the light and were then led astray into the marsh"
• Then on the 208th page of the same book he wrote:
"The rude insertion of Ernest Shonekan's illegal government for eighty-two days is neither here nor there, lacking any legitimate locus standi as an interventionist regime, except as an extension of General Babangida's aberration."
Observations:
1 The illegality of Sonekan's regime (at the time) was substantiated by Abba Mahmood in his article in the Leadership, in which he wrote:
"High Court in Lagos had declared the Shonekan regime illegal and Nigeria was heading towards a national crisis." https://leadership.ng/2017/11/16/remembering-abacha-regime/
2 General Alli made reference to this on the 220rd page of his book.
3 Oladiti Abiodun Akeem, in his paper, titled: "Ernest Shonekan and Interim National Governance in Nigeria", published in the "Research on Humanities and Social Sciences" captured the facts for history this way:
"Justice Dolapo Akinsanya of the Lagos high court nullified the appointment of Ernest Shonekan as the head of the Interim National Government and declared that the duly elected candidate be sworn in as the president recognized by law. The defense secretary Abacha who was the most senior member of Shonekan’s cabinet took control of power on November 17, 1993, after only 82 days in office"
IMPORTANT OBSERVATION:
If Sonekan was "IN OFFICE BUT NOT IN POWER", ( and therefore had no control over the armed forces, when Babangida stepped aside) how would Tinubu be able to enforce effective command and control over the Northernized army BUHARI is putting in place without the limitations Ogundipe faced for which he eventually had to "abdicate" for Gowon?
Military historian, Max Siollun, wrote on the 122nd page of his 2009, Algora, New York published book: "Oil, Politics and Violence Nigeria's Military Coup Culture 1966-1976) ", wrote about Ogundipe's dilemma, which Obasanjo, and Shonekan faced, this way:
"Even if he had taken a firmer stand, Ogundipe did not have a "critical support network" in the army as were very few Yoruba soldiers"
General Alli corroborated it on the 211st page of the same book, this way:
"With the Northern control of the Army thus established and consolidated, it was not long for the vital interest of the North to dominate the incipient political conversion of the Army into a political arm of the Northern hegemonic resurgence."
The North needed Tinubu as a tool of "Northern hegemonic resurgence." That was achieved in 2015 and consolidated in 2019, he has outlived his usefulness to the North, the tragic consequence of deviating from Awolowo's Master plan of the 1960s.
The consensus to preserve Northern vital interest, would be to exempt Tinubu because he is too strong willed and intelligent for "In office but not in power".
STRATEGIC OBSERVATION: THE ISLAMIC BRIDGE: TINUBU'S TO RELEVANCE:
Siollun observes on 180-181st pages of his book: "Oil, Politics and Violence" wrote:
"The core conspirators in the coup against Gowon were Muslim officers from the far North, thus Garba's participation was essential to avoid antagonizing officers from middle belt ethnic group who might interpret the coup as an attempt by officers from the far north to wrestle power away from Christian middle belt Officers."
Paul Tarfa, Alfred Aduloju and Garba, were the only Christians.
General M. C. Alli on the 144th page of the same book, captured the religious dimension of the vital interest of the North this way:
"Northern hold on power had been predicated on four strategic leverages, namely: geography, the Ahmadu Bello's 'north for the North's or northernization, language which eases intra-regional Communication, religion which provides Political connection and rally, and finally the military as a fallback position should these Democratic advantages be neutralized. The latter explains the sophisticated design of a military high command that is exclusive and responsive to Northern interests"
Akinjide Osuntokun, on the 172nd page of his biography of S. L. AKINTOLA, authenticated by, E. A. Ayandele, a Professor of History of the University of Ibadan, in his second entry in this work notes, the religious leverage, Tinubu's partnership based on General Alli's assertion hoped to take advantage of to access power. He wrote:
"Yoruba people have many things in common with the Hausa-Fulani, and that this should be translated into political cooperation, the Yoruba people have always drifted away from cooperation with the Hausa-Fulani. The reason for this has been historical."
The many things in common with the Hausa-Fulani has the Islamic faith as one profound "power point" that joins Tinubu and Buhari.
TINUBU BEYOND THE LIMITS OF IN OFFICE BUT NOT IN POWER
The Author, Dan McKinnon on the 178th page of his (1987 Berkley book account) of the Israeli bombing of Iraq's nuclear reactor, located in the Iraqi town of Osirak, (that occurred on June 7, 1981) , he titled: Bullseye Iraq" provided this insight to the air power doctrine of the Israeli Air Force, that is very much applicable to Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He made reference to an Israeli pilot who said:
"There are four types of students in flight training: Those who think slow and decide wrong. Those who think slow and decide right, Those who think fast and decide wrong, Those who think fast and decide right. "It's the last group we want in pilot training".
Tinubu is a FAST thinker who decides RIGHT!
The progressives have always made the brightest and the best available for the top job; Awolowo and Abiola are good examples. First it was Awolowo that had to be jailed without any substantial evidence, then Abiola the progressive convert whose clear victory was annulled before his capitulation from life to death ( under highly suspicious circumstances) over a cup of tea....tea had never been known to be so lethal!
From the perspective of the vital interest of the North, is Tinubu not by far too smart and daring to be entrusted with Dodan Barracks bait?
For a man who could wriggle out of Obasanjo's Economic blockade, to invent the IGR paradigm, would tempting him with "Dodan Barracks" strategy not be like giving a loose ball to either C. Ronaldo or Lioniel Messi in the 18-yard box and expecting them not to score, or giving a well tailored pass to Michael Jordan and expecting him not to SLAM DUNK it home?
The strategy of the core North it seems, is to play along with him, compromising him with each step, the latest of which is Wale Tinubu, that followed the Muiz Banire/El-Rufai's introduction.
Tinubu is by far too intelligent to expect him to be in OFFICE but not in POWER.....and the North know it!
For the core North, he has outlived his usefulness of getting them to power!
AWARA'S "RIVERS ‘ADOPTION’ FUND"
Considering the role of money in Nigerian politics, Rewane was there for Awolowo and AG, Wale Tinubu seems to be financially there for Bola Tinubu (apart from Tinubu's personal fund). Who was Awara's financial backbone in his quest to be governor?
From Olalekan Adetayo's May 22nd, 2019 article, he titled:
"AAC probes alleged mismanagement of $1m Rivers ‘adoption’ fund"
….. it is clear, Awara and his AAC party had no financial backbone, but were gambling on a hitchhike to power by selling their birthright (biblical Esau style) for $1m to Amaechi and his APC, hopping the Nigerian Army will replay the internal doctrine of occupation principle the British army used for Akintoye against Kosoko between 1849 and 1862.
His expectation was a replay against Wike (the comparative Kosoko) in his favour (the comparative Akintoye) in 2019, it backfired!
The Neutral evidence of Mr Olufemi Aduwo, president of Right Monitoring Group (RMG), as published by Tribune, put it this way:
"The military sided with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in some parts of the country during the election. In some strategic states, the military personnel were the ones making signs to the politicians about which party the electorate were voting for."
If Tinubu the progressive would find if tough, how much more an Awara (without any political base of structure)
Where would he find a voice to disagree, should the vital interest of the core North clash with vital interests of the South South, he would want to protect?
If Tinubu is not an exemption, from "in office but not in power", what chance does Awara have?
Question: If Tinubu with his sphere of influence and Murtala with his "Critical Support Network" could be exposed to "Dodan Barracks", who is Aware not to be consumed by it?
Continues